MediumProbabilityAcceptance 55%
Bayes — Disease Test
Goldman SachsTwo Sigma
A disease affects 1% of a population. A test is 99% sensitive (true-positive) and has a 1% false-positive rate. Given a positive test, what is the probability the person actually has the disease?
Approach
Compare true positives to total positives.
The 1% prevalence matters enormously.
Answer
Show the final answer
The answer is 0.5. Sign in free for the full worked solution and to check your own answer.
Related problems
Monty HallEasyRoll Until All Six FacesMediumBirthday ProblemMediumTwo ChildrenEasyPoisson — No ArrivalsMediumThe 100 Prisoners ProblemHard
More in Probability.