MediumProbabilityAcceptance 55%

Bayes — Disease Test

Goldman SachsTwo Sigma

A disease affects 1% of a population. A test is 99% sensitive (true-positive) and has a 1% false-positive rate. Given a positive test, what is the probability the person actually has the disease?

Approach

Compare true positives to total positives.

The 1% prevalence matters enormously.

Answer

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