EasyProbabilityAcceptance 56%

Monty Hall

Goldman SachsMorgan Stanley

Three doors: one hides a car, two hide goats. You pick a door; the host (who knows) opens a different door revealing a goat, then offers you the switch. What is your probability of winning the car if you switch?

Approach

What’s the chance your first pick was right?

The host’s choice is not random — it carries information.

Answer

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